13/07/2026
Embolo, 'mistaken identity' and the future of VAR
This past Sunday morning at 3am I got up to watch Switzerland take on Argentina in the quarterfinals of the FIFA World Cup 2026. The strongest Swiss team (in my lifetime) stood a real chance of beating the reigning World Champions, so it was disappointing to see the game changed so dramatically by the sending off of Breel Embolo in the 72nd minute.
It was the context of his red card however, that has captured the attention of the football world. Embolo became the first player to be sent off under the new VAR ‘mistaken identity’ law - a controversial, much debated decision, which ultimately changed the entire momentum of the game.
This case highlights the manner in which VAR is changing, and will continue to change the sorts of discussions that we have about football matches. The common assumption is that Embolo ‘dived’, and that in football diving is a deliberate attempt to fool the referee into making a decision that unfairly goes in your favour. But is this really the case?
Sometimes, for sure. Especially so when it is within the penalty area with potentially huge gains to be made. But this was not the case with Embolo who was at the sideline for a throw in. One could argue that as he has been known to ‘dive’ before, it may just have become a bad habit which he and his team paid a dear price for on this occasion.
I suspect however that the reality is far more complex. That in that split second his brain registered what was about to happen, and decided to ‘roll with it’. Perhaps with the intention of fooling the referee, perhaps out of habit, or perhaps to protect himself from getting hurt. Most likely, a complex interaction including all of the above. How much of this should he and his team be held accountable for, and what would be a proportionately fair ‘punishment’?
In order to take some power out of a force heading in your direction, Aikido teaches you to move with the force rather than to oppose it. So too I suspect that when someone comes in to tackle in football there is often an instinctive reaction to go with the movement, in order to lessen the likely force of impact.
The exact workings of the brain in this split second are as yet a mystery to us. And yet the more detailed a manner in which we analyse such a split-second decision using VAR, the more important that these processes become.
Every new solution bring new challenges. The benefits of modern medicine have contributed to the problem of overpopulation, nuclear power has created the problem of nuclear waste disposal and hugely increased the potential horrors of war. Similarly VAR will increasingly raise questions around the finer details of human intention and decision-making in split seconds. VAR will not end the controversies - it simply shifts them to increasingly tiny and complex levels. Is this really what interests us about football?
Ultimately you either take VAR out of the game entirely and focus on the bigger picture while putting up with the occasional bad calls, or you roll with the new developments. Dare I say, a-la Embolo … ;)
