05/28/2020
COVID-19 Testing, Staying Safer, and ‘What Does the Doctor Think?”
5/28/20
Lately, I have been getting more questions about COVID-19 testing, what my thoughts are about ‘staying safe’, and what the Summer may be like?
I have been working on a “Harvey Health Perspective” COVID-19 update for the past week, and it seems that every day, new information appears that changes what I want to share with my patients. Personally, I have been a physician for 30 years, and I have never seen a situation or disease where the information was changing and updating so fast!
As a physician, I try to keep my focus on ‘evidence-based medicine’. What does the data show us? (The information I am sharing is focusing on what is going on in the United States).
In any crisis, one of the key things that we need is reliable and useful information. However, that is difficult to find. Cities, regions, states, and the US government all report ‘information’.
However, the information we are receiving is ‘variable’, and sometimes unreliable.
Background- There are 2 types of COVID-19 tests: Antigen (swab up the nose)- which indicates an active infection, and Antibody testing (blood test) which indicates that the patient has had a COVID-19 infection in the past few weeks or months.
1st Problem- Within the US, there are over 150 different Antigen tests, and at least 150 different Antibody tests- and they are often not reliable. For some tests, the likelihood that the test is accurate is 50% or worse. Having a positive, or negative test is not always highly accurate. It could be falsely positive, or falsely positive. Can testing be useful? Yes… but the details are ‘complicated’ and confusing.
2nd Problem- Some groups around the country report the # of Antigen tests and the # of Antibody tests as separate numbers. Some groups report the total # of tests performed- combining the # of Antigen and Antibody tests. When we try to ask the questions:
How many Americans have been tested to see if they have active COVID-19? We don’t really know.
Likewise, when we try to ask the question: How many Americans have already had COVID-19? we don’t really know. We just do not have enough information.
3rd Problem: As of the end of May, the availability of COVID testing, both Antigen and Antibody remains low. For the Lansing, MI area, widespread COVID testing has only become available in the past 1 week. There are many areas of the country that still have very limited testing available. Often, it is only the people who are ‘very sick’ or very high risk who have been tested.
4th Problem: If you get Antibody testing done, and it is positive, it means that you MAY have COVID-19 antibodies. It means that you ‘probably’ had a COVID-19 infection, but we don’t know when, and it is possible that it is falsely positive, or falsely negative.
We also do not know if that antibody will protect you from a future infection.
Antibody testing can be very useful to epidemiologist or people who study disease progression. It helps the community and the country, but it does not always provide useful information to the individual patient.
A Doctor’s thoughts about Summer, 2020.
We cannot prevent getting COVID-19- but we can reduce our risks. For myself, that means:
1) -Social distancing: I will wear a mask whenever I am within 6 feet of people outside of my immediate family. 6 feet from others is a minimum!
2) -I will continue to wear a mask in my office, in any store, or in a mall, or if I am walking somewhere where there are people close to me.
3) -I will continue to wash my hands with soap and water whenever I can, and I will use hand sanitizer when I cannot wash. I carry a couple of bottles of hand sanitizer in my car, and it is easily available in my office.
4) - Air circulation matters! I will avoid in-door gatherings whenever I can. A concert outside is much less risky than a concert inside a building.
5)- I don’t plan on flying anywhere in 2020. I might fly on an airplane if I had a critical family emergency, but I don’t plan on attending any family gatherings, or conferences that require me to go to an airport.
6) If I were to fly on an airplane because of a family emergency-
-I would be wearing a mask from the time I entered the terminal until I was out of the building.
-I would be using hand sanitizer frequently!
-I would Self quarantine and stay away from my immediate family,
- I would get a COVID-19 Antigen testing 5-6 days after I came home.
-If it was negative, I would repeat it at 10 days from exposure.
7) Personally, I will continue to do hypertonic salt-water nasal irrigation multiple times a day. It may sound weird, but there is some good science behind it. Please look at my previous health blogs.
B) What the summer looks like in terms of COVID-19
Overall- as a country we are now at > 100,000 people dead from COVID-19. In some states, the # of new cases has decreased, and in some states, the # of new cases has increased.
As I look at the ‘lack of social distancing’ over the Memorial Day weekend, it will not be a surprise if the # of new cases increases over the next 1-2 weeks.
Because our country does not yet have adequate COVID-19 testing, the # of new cases is likely to underestimate the spread of the disease.
C) Statistics:
The information is still very “preliminary” for the United States but overall it looks like:
1) 0.4% of people who feel sick from COVID-19 will die.
For people over 65, the CDC estimates that 1.3% who get COVID-19 symptoms will die.
It is possible that up to 50% of people who get COVID-19 will have no significant symptoms.
2) In general-the older you are, and the more chronic health problems you have, the more likely you are to end up in the hospital, and a more likely you are to die.