07/21/2020
Long post alert regarding returning to in-person school.
I'm currently writing this while awaiting the test results of my 3 and 1 year old nieces who were directly exposed to a positive child at daycare. They have been placed in a mandatory 14 day home quarantine by thier local health department, regardless of results.
I want to thank any of you directly involved that are devoting hours of your time and effort in this area. I too am struggling to find answers in this time of uncertainty. My line for this entire pandemic has been "there is no playbook for this".
I've dissected the data and the numbers, trying to decipher patterns and truth. I've read the studies, trying to concentrate on the best available information to help navigate the murky waters ahead. That being said, as a physician, parent, husband to an immunocompromised wife, friend to affected individuals, and concerned community member, I cannot see a scenario (without a vaccine) where we can have in-person education (let alone sporting events, church services, educational conferences, work meetings, etc) any time soon. The ripple-effect from a single positive test is where I struggle most. One positive test places all known contacts in quarantine and could potentially lead to devastating results.
Here's some data from a South Korean study looking specifically at kids 10-19 years old. I've copied a pasted a summary and included the link in the comments.
Takeaways: One positive patient typically infects 12% of household contacts and 2% of non-household contacts. However, in the age group of 10-19 years, this study found infectious rates of 19% of household contacts. The remainder of the age groups held at 12% and 2%, respectively for household contacts and non-household contacts.
Think of the ripple effect of just one positive case in a single classroom. What does that mean for the other kids, the teachers, the parents who both work away from home? All of this assumes the symptoms may be minimal, but what if they're not? Now you see why I can't envision kids in physical classrooms anytime soon.
I've talked with colleagues who have treated hundreds of cases. There is no predictibility to this disease. During the peak in southeast Michigan, my friends would leave the hospital daily and walk past trailers full of the deceased...there was no other place for the bodies to go.
This disease is real. Don't let anyone tell you anything to the contrary.