08/21/2026
Autism diagnoses in one large US health system rose after 2020. Split the data by s*x and the story changes completely.
Researchers at Saint Louis University tracked 171,134 people who stayed with the same health system from 2016 to 2024. Among males, new diagnoses declined across the whole period. Among females, they rose 19% a year after 2020.
The sharpest increase of all was in teenage girls, up around 22% every year.
In plain numbers, annual diagnoses among females nearly doubled, from 284 in 2016 to 513 in 2024.
The researchers’ own conclusion is the part worth carrying: this isn’t a population-level increase in autism. It’s increased recognition of autistic females who were there the whole time.
Which surprises nobody who has been paying attention. Autism was defined, studied and screened for using boys. Girls who masked, girls who were quiet, girls whose interests looked socially acceptable, they got called anxious, sensitive, shy, difficult, or nothing at all. Then they grew up and wondered why everything felt so hard.
Some honest limits. This is one health system in the Midwest, mostly non-Hispanic White patients, and it counts diagnostic codes rather than assessments. It is not a national prevalence figure.
But the pattern is clear enough. The girls weren’t absent. Nobody was looking for them.
📰 : JAMA Network Open