06/11/2026
Some comments on one of my recent videos got me thinking about a challenge that physicians face every day, and something that I try to do my best both with my patients and when I create educational social media content.
Many people assume medical recommendations are only justified when a bad outcome is likely, but that’s not how medicine always works.
Sometimes, we worry about common problems because they happen frequently. Other times, we worry about uncommon problems because the consequences can be severe.
That’s why we recommend seatbelts even though most car rides end safely.
It’s why we tell people not to use tap water for sinus rinses even though most people who do will never develop a serious infection.
It’s why allergists prescribe epinephrine even though most days it will never be used.
It’s why physicians generally do not recommend manipulating a pustule on the central face even though most do not develop serious complications.
One of the biggest communication challenges in medicine is that people often hear:
“This can happen”
as
“This is likely to happen.”
Those statements are not equivalent.
Good risk communication requires us to discuss both probability and consequence.
The goal isn’t fear.
The goal is helping people understand risk accurately enough to make informed decisions and to communicate issues people may not be aware of. Because medicine isn’t just about predicting what will happen most of the time.
It’s also about preventing the rare things that matter.
