05/10/2022
Marion County, FL COVID-19 Update
May 10, 2022
We have moved back to orange themes this week (barely) with a slowly increasing spike in new cases. It’s possible this may be the beginning of a larger surge, but very likely not on the scale of Delta or Omicron. Or this may be a baseline ‘wobble’ of a small peak, similar to what happened exactly one year ago in May of 2021. I’m hoping our widespread population immunity will suppress any significant spread of this BA.2 variant this summer. Of note, hospitalizations remain low locally.
Notes:
Now that mitigation measures are being fully relaxed nationally, and around the world, there is more uncertainty and the prediction of future trends becomes more difficult. Ending mitigation measures will test the endemic behavior of this virus for the first time. More spread of COVID is certain. How much spread and the timing of this spread is far less clear.
There is another issue becoming more problematic for reporting: the accuracy and reliability of our local figures (new cases and test positivity) are worsening over time. This is due to at least two major factors:
1. An increasing percentage of our population are becoming desensitized to the pandemic, which reduces testing demand
2. Rapid antigen tests are now widely available and commonly used for at-home testing, the results of which are usually not reported
These factors would result in a significant undercounting of the actual real-time prevalence of COVID locally and nationally. This is not a new phenomenon, however. As I’ve discussed in numerous previous posts over the last two years, the figures we have been reporting throughout the pandemic have been significant undercounts. During the peaks of our previous major surges, testing demand exceeded testing capacity. Also, there are large portions of the population who never seek testing, unless forced to during a hospitalization. And there has always been a form of unrecorded ‘proxy testing’ (i.e., a woman tests positive, and her husband is also sick, but doesn’t get tested because he’s already presumed positive). We should interpret the data currently being reported with the assumption that the real count is higher than what is documented.
All of that being said, I believe these data are still reliable enough to be useful for some people as they make mitigation decisions. So, for now, I will continue these updates.
Final Analysis:
COVID (BA.2) is once again spreading within our local community, and it’s probably somewhat worse than the figures suggest. However, I see no global epidemiological indicators to be fearful of a another major surge locally. For those who are higher risk, get boosted if it’s been more than 6-9+ months since your last shot. Take appropriate precautions for your situation, and keep a watchful eye for people around you who seem symptomatic of sinus or upper respiratory infections. And as always, speak with your healthcare provider or pharmacist if you need further guidance.
Take care and stay safe.
-DK
