Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)

Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) The Center for European Policy Analysis | CEPA’s mission is to ensure a strong and democratic transatlantic alliance for future generations.

Media:[email protected] The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) is a non-partisan think-tank dedicated to re-inventing Atlanticism for a more secure future. Headquartered in Washington, D.C. and led by seasoned transatlanticists and emerging leaders from both sides of the Atlantic, CEPA brings an innovative approach to the foreign policy arena. Our cutting-edge analysis and timely debates galv

anize communities of influence while investing in the next generation of leaders to understand and address present and future challenges to transatlantic values and principles.

09/05/2026

The unity of the alliance is the alliance's center of gravity, and that is what hybrid attacks are designed to erode.

Lt. Gen. Lance Landrum argues the first response is therefore resilience, with members taking care of themselves around NATO's seven pillars: energy security, communications, mass casualty and pandemic readiness, continuity of government. Citizens also need to know what is happening to them, which makes attribution part of the defense rather than a bureaucratic step after it.

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The drone at Leipzig carried military-grade Semtex, struck the wing of a Ukrainian cargo aircraft, and failed to detonat...
09/04/2026

The drone at Leipzig carried military-grade Semtex, struck the wing of a Ukrainian cargo aircraft, and failed to detonate. Nico Lange explained to the Washington Post that German authorities were lucky that a catastrophe did not occur.

Had it detonated next to a fuel tank at an airport used by NATO military aircraft, Germany would have been deciding overnight whether an act of war had been committed on its territory. Sam Greene warns that this is how shadow war escalates: not through a decision in Moscow to fight NATO, but through an operation that goes further than intended and forces a response nobody planned to make.

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Europe is debating how much of its AI stack it needs to own, and right now it owns very little of it.Cloud infrastructur...
09/04/2026

Europe is debating how much of its AI stack it needs to own, and right now it owns very little of it.

Cloud infrastructure, advanced chips, and foundation models sit largely outside European jurisdiction. Whether Europe treats this as a dependency to manage or a gap to close will shape transatlantic technology policy for the next decade.

AI sovereignty is on the agenda at the 2026 CEPA Tech & Security Conference, a half-day convening on Thursday, October 8, at the House of Sweden in Washington, DC, hosted in partnership with the Embassy of Sweden in Washington.

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Recent Russian attempts to swing votes in Moldova, Hungary, and France itself have failed. That is not as reassuring as ...
09/04/2026

Recent Russian attempts to swing votes in Moldova, Hungary, and France itself have failed. That is not as reassuring as it sounds.

Orbán was too unpopular for disinformation to close the gap, and lopsided races are hard to move. Close ones are not. Jean-Baptiste Laborde argues interference does not need to convert a majority to be useful, only to harden existing doubts, hold down turnout in particular groups, or nudge the undecided. France's 2027 field is unusually unsettled, with the RN's eventual challenger still unclear and Mélenchon now a live contender for the runoff.

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Drivers and pedestrians in Kyiv have gone back to paper maps because defensive GPS spoofing meant to confuse Russian dro...
09/04/2026

Drivers and pedestrians in Kyiv have gone back to paper maps because defensive GPS spoofing meant to confuse Russian drones has scrambled navigation apps. Phones place users thousands of miles away and switch time zones.

That is one improvisation among many. A Telegram group called Air Raid Ride matches stranded commuters with drivers when transport halts. Railways now disperse trains and shorten boarding to avoid crowds on platforms. Elena Davlikanova argues a drone does not need to destroy a factory to impose a cost, and that keeping workers home and trains stopped does the damage just as well.

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A strategic alliance of Russia and China moves to overrule Norwegian sovereignty of Svalbard. With Chinese support, Russ...
09/03/2026

A strategic alliance of Russia and China moves to overrule Norwegian sovereignty of Svalbard. With Chinese support, Russia deploys new biotech applications in the High North that NATO has yet to operationalize in the field. What happens next?

To find out, a strategic scenario exercise set in the Arctic Circle, hosted with the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology, put the question to the test. Biotech applications for defense are wide-ranging, shaping warfighter resilience, infrastructure and equipment, and critical supply chains. If a Russia-China alliance is the first to deploy these technologies at scale, the US and its allies could be left scrambling to catch up.

Russians searched the phrase "exemption from mobilization" 97,380 times in July, the second-highest volume since Septemb...
09/03/2026

Russians searched the phrase "exemption from mobilization" 97,380 times in July, the second-highest volume since September 2022.

Searches for "rent Armenia" followed the same curve, and estate agents in Yerevan report a sharp rise in enquiries from Russian citizens. Groups helping conscientious objectors have logged a marked increase in calls. Alexandra Yatsyk argues the population is reading the signals faster than the official denials can suppress them, and it has been through this once before.

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In February, Russian forces were cut off from Starlink while Ukraine kept its access. Assault operations stalled, and co...
09/03/2026

In February, Russian forces were cut off from Starlink while Ukraine kept its access. Assault operations stalled, and coordination between troops and drones broke down.

Ukrainian forces retook ground in the southeast weeks later, with the shutdown assessed as one factor. Sofia Slonovska and Benjamin Schmitt argue that the episode is why Moscow is now pouring resources into a sovereign alternative, and why Ukraine should draw the mirror-image lesson: permanent access to one foreign commercial provider is not something to assume.

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At least 21 Wildberries warehouses have been hit by Ukrainian drones.Wildberries is Russia's answer to Amazon. Under Put...
09/03/2026

At least 21 Wildberries warehouses have been hit by Ukrainian drones.

Wildberries is Russia's answer to Amazon. Under Putin's new decree, a company in that position can now be taken into "temporary" state ownership for an indefinite period if its owners are judged to have failed to protect it. Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan argue this inverts the basic arrangement between a state and its businesses, since defending the country against external attack is what governments maintain armies for.

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When a private firm hosts an autonomous AI agent, it holds something governments do not. It can monitor the agent, restr...
09/02/2026

When a private firm hosts an autonomous AI agent, it holds something governments do not. It can monitor the agent, restrict it, or stop it outright.

Roberto Baldoni argues that capability should be structured rather than improvised, with governments defining intervention thresholds in advance so providers can take narrow and reversible steps on their own systems, revoking access, isolating resources, or suspending ex*****on. Anything beyond those pre-authorized limits belongs to public authorities.

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