20/08/2026
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Is the NHI feasible?
“The President has made an undertaking, sanctioned by court, that he will not sign any sections into law until the Constitutional Court has ruled on current [NHI-related] cases; and the Minister of Health has also undertaken not to implement any part of it,” said Roseanne Harris, Executive Head of Policy and Regulatory Affairs for Discovery Health, during the brand’s inaugural Retirement Fund Forum.
Harris was challenged by Discovery Health’s Chief Product Officer, Yashtil Moodley, on the feasibility of the plan. Her first observation was that stakeholders should not deflect from the core problem the Act seeks to address, being access to quality healthcare for all South Africans. She then conceded that “the single fund model inherent in the current version of the NHI was not feasible”. To explain why required a multi-category dissection of how people funded and participated in the private and public healthcare sectors.
The first task was to segment people into medical scheme members; other income taxpayers not on medical schemes; the informal sector; and the unemployed. This exercise revealed that 14% of the population were beneficiaries of medical schemes, while up to two-thirds were unemployed or informally employed. “We have a very small proportion of people who are funding the tax base for healthcare benefits,” Harris said, noting that the 14% were chipping in around 74% of personal income tax.
Dissecting tax revenue shares
The next step was to show how the four segments participated in healthcare financing and utilisation. Discovery Health estimates the ratio of tax benefits to tax payments in the healthcare financing realm as 7.2 times for the unemployed; 1.6 times for those in the informal sector; 2.3 times for taxpayers not on medical schemes; and 0.1 times for medical scheme members, mostly through the medical tax credit mechanism. The bulk of private funding, which is contributed by the medical scheme members, is used by them.
“One of the big challenges with the healthcare financing debate is that private funding and public funding are just sort of conveniently put into a single pot,” Harris said. “But private funding, the medical scheme contributions being the biggest component of that, largely comes from after-tax, out-of-pocket household expenditure”. She argued that raising tax collections to fund NHI would lead to a significant drop in healthcare cover for more than half of taxpayers. The solution demands that current taxpayers pay much more in taxes in return for an even smaller portion of the total healthcare pot.
Moodley echoed the uncertainty among intermediaries, medical scheme providers and various other stakeholders in the private healthcare sector, asking: “What is the current status of the NHI? We know now it is not feasible; is this eventually going to be forced upon us in 10 years, or do our medical schemes still have 20 to 30 years as going concerns?” Harris reminded the audience that there were eight or nine litigants involved in taking legal action against the NHI.
Court challenges ongoing
FAnews has reported on these in the past, notably in ‘NHI leaves your clients with 43% less cover at 1.5 times the tax’. An up-to-date summary shared during the presentation confirmed two procedural and one substantive challenge against the law. Harris said that the Western Cape Government and Board of Healthcare Funders (BHF) case against Parliamentary procedure had gone before the Constitutional Court from 5-7 May 2026, and that rulings were expected in October. “Those rulings could lead to the NHI Act being sent back to Parliament, which would be quite a positive thing,” she said.
Substantive challenges have been brought by a long list of organisations including the Health Funders Association (HFA); Hospital Association of South Africa (HASA); South African Medical Association (SAMA); South African Private Practitioners Forum (SAPPF); Solidarity; and Sakeliga. A consolidation and deferral case was held late in February this year, and these actions are ongoing. A separate BHF and SAPPF challenge against Presidential procedure is postponed indefinitely pending the Court ruling on Parliamentary procedure.
One of the substantive issues that will be tested is how government could push ahead with an uncosted solution. Harris showed some sympathy for government’s reticence here; but said that any health reforms should at least be costed on a scenario basis. She referred the audience to a report by Genesis Analytics, which includes detailed costing and analysis on various scenarios. This is the same report that informed the aforementioned FAnews article, which concludes that medical scheme members will pay 1.5 times more tax for 43% of their current cover. And that was for one of the most affordable hybrid scenarios included in the research.
A fiscally impossible solution
Genesis noted that even under the most optimistic assumptions, factoring in as much as 45% in savings from present private sector healthcare cost levels, government would not be able to raise the necessary funds. To quote from the report: “for NHI to fund a level of care equivalent to what medical scheme members currently receive, personal income tax would need to increase by 2.2 times from the current average rate of 21%.” That explains why the report labelled the implementation of the NHI Act as fiscally impossible.
So, what happens next? Harris said there was “a robust engagement process happening” while industry awaited clarity on the various legal actions. She believes that this process will lead to a workable model that is unlikely to resemble the current NHI solution. As an aside, whatever solution the private sector eventually thrashes out with government will likely require another 10 to 15 years to implement. To wrap the conversation, Moodley asked the expert what healthcare brokers and medical scheme members should do in the interim.
There are some low-cost benefit option (LCBO)-type cover alternatives available to South Africa’s low- to mid-income earners. These solutions are based on primary care coverage that is consistent with the principles inherent in the NHI and broader healthcare policy; but they remain on the periphery of the medical scheme regulatory environment. Harris said that bringing such products into the medical scheme ‘fold’ could contribute to more affordable access for around 10 million people.
The primary cover solution already exists
“We are certainly pushing hard for primary care coverage to be accommodated in the medical scheme environment; these initiatives are entirely consistent with what the NHI is trying to achieve,” Harris concluded. “If we can get to the multi-payer environment that we envisage, then building this coverage will be part of that workable solution”. The more people you can lift out of public sector dependence, the more you can increase the per capita amount that is available for the unemployed.
Is the NHI feasible?
“The President has made an undertaking, sanctioned by court, that he will not sign any sections into law until the Constitutional Court has ruled on current [NHI-related] cases; and the Minister of Health has also undertaken not to implement any part of it,” said Roseanne Harris, Executive Head of Policy and Regulatory Affairs for Discovery Health, during the brand’s inaugural Retirement Fund Forum.
Harris was challenged by Discovery Health’s Chief Product Officer, Yashtil Moodley, on the feasibility of the plan. Her first observation was that stakeholders should not deflect from the core problem the Act seeks to address, being access to quality healthcare for all South Africans. She then conceded that “the single fund model inherent in the current version of the NHI was not feasible”. To explain why required a multi-category dissection of how people funded and participated in the private and public healthcare sectors.
The first task was to segment people into medical scheme members; other income taxpayers not on medical schemes; the informal sector; and the unemployed. This exercise revealed that 14% of the population were beneficiaries of medical schemes, while up to two-thirds were unemployed or informally employed. “We have a very small proportion of people who are funding the tax base for healthcare benefits,” Harris said, noting that the 14% were chipping in around 74% of personal income tax.
Dissecting tax revenue shares
The next step was to show how the four segments participated in healthcare financing and utilisation. Discovery Health estimates the ratio of tax benefits to tax payments in the healthcare financing realm as 7.2 times for the unemployed; 1.6 times for those in the informal sector; 2.3 times for taxpayers not on medical schemes; and 0.1 times for medical scheme members, mostly through the medical tax credit mechanism. The bulk of private funding, which is contributed by the medical scheme members, is used by them.
“One of the big challenges with the healthcare financing debate is that private funding and public funding are just sort of conveniently put into a single pot,” Harris said. “But private funding, the medical scheme contributions being the biggest component of that, largely comes from after-tax, out-of-pocket household expenditure”. She argued that raising tax collections to fund NHI would lead to a significant drop in healthcare cover for more than half of taxpayers. The solution demands that current taxpayers pay much more in taxes in return for an even smaller portion of the total healthcare pot.
Moodley echoed the uncertainty among intermediaries, medical scheme providers and various other stakeholders in the private healthcare sector, asking: “What is the current status of the NHI? We know now it is not feasible; is this eventually going to be forced upon us in 10 years, or do our medical schemes still have 20 to 30 years as going concerns?” Harris reminded the audience that there were eight or nine litigants involved in taking legal action against the NHI.
Court challenges ongoing
FAnews has reported on these in the past, notably in ‘NHI leaves your clients with 43% less cover at 1.5 times the tax’. An up-to-date summary shared during the presentation confirmed two procedural and one substantive challenge against the law. Harris said that the Western Cape Government and Board of Healthcare Funders (BHF) case against Parliamentary procedure had gone before the Constitutional Court from 5-7 May 2026, and that rulings were expected in October. “Those rulings could lead to the NHI Act being sent back to Parliament, which would be quite a positive thing,” she said.
Substantive challenges have been brought by a long list of organisations including the Health Funders Association (HFA); Hospital Association of South Africa (HASA); South African Medical Association (SAMA); South African Private Practitioners Forum (SAPPF); Solidarity; and Sakeliga. A consolidation and deferral case was held late in February this year, and these actions are ongoing. A separate BHF and SAPPF challenge against Presidential procedure is postponed indefinitely pending the Court ruling on Parliamentary procedure.
One of the substantive issues that will be tested is how government could push ahead with an uncosted solution. Harris showed some sympathy for government’s reticence here; but said that any health reforms should at least be costed on a scenario basis. She referred the audience to a report by Genesis Analytics, which includes detailed costing and analysis on various scenarios. This is the same report that informed the aforementioned FAnews article, which concludes that medical scheme members will pay 1.5 times more tax for 43% of their current cover. And that was for one of the most affordable hybrid scenarios included in the research.
A fiscally impossible solution
Genesis noted that even under the most optimistic assumptions, factoring in as much as 45% in savings from present private sector healthcare cost levels, government would not be able to raise the necessary funds. To quote from the report: “for NHI to fund a level of care equivalent to what medical scheme members currently receive, personal income tax would need to increase by 2.2 times from the current average rate of 21%.” That explains why the report labelled the implementation of the NHI Act as fiscally impossible.
So, what happens next? Harris said there was “a robust engagement process happening” while industry awaited clarity on the various legal actions. She believes that this process will lead to a workable model that is unlikely to resemble the current NHI solution. As an aside, whatever solution the private sector eventually thrashes out with government will likely require another 10 to 15 years to implement. To wrap the conversation, Moodley asked the expert what healthcare brokers and medical scheme members should do in the interim.
There are some low-cost benefit option (LCBO)-type cover alternatives available to South Africa’s low- to mid-income earners. These solutions are based on primary care coverage that is consistent with the principles inherent in the NHI and broader healthcare policy; but they remain on the periphery of the medical scheme regulatory environment. Harris said that bringing such products into the medical scheme ‘fold’ could contribute to more affordable access for around 10 million people.
The primary cover solution already exists
“We are certainly pushing hard for primary care coverage to be accommodated in the medical scheme environment; these initiatives are entirely consistent with what the NHI is trying to achieve,” Harris concluded. “If we can get to the multi-payer environment that we envisage, then building this coverage will be part of that workable solution”. The more people you can lift out of public sector dependence, the more you can increase the per capita amount that is available for the unemployed.